3 对今后开展研究的设想
根据上述长三角的现状，作者今后拟侧重对长三角主要代表性城市地区（重点对上海以及南京、杭州、苏州、无锡、常州、温州、宁波、绍兴、南通、扬州、徐州、盐城、连云港、嘉兴） 开展历史数据、遥感GIS 数据、观测台站数据、水土气和孢粉等采样数据的研究。对历史时期的研究结合史料的收集和考证，对工业革命（18 世纪60 年代） 以来的环境演变将对本区气象站、水文站、验潮站连续30 年来观测的数据、1995 年以来陆续建成的地面沉降观测点数据进行分析，并对连云港田湾核电站和嘉兴秦山核电站进行供电和冷却安全性调查。
作者今后拟研究该区的指标数据包括城镇规划与发展变化、GDP、人口分布、服务设施、碳排放、PM2.5、土壤重金属、气温降水、水文水质、海面变化、地面沉降、孢粉记录等，通过对这些资料和数据的分析，获取长三角城镇化和土地利用变化过程信息，利用GIS 技术获取影响土地利用变化的地理要素，运用元胞自动机模型预测长三角的空间格局与演变过程，在研究方法上主要采用作者课题组成员熟悉的研究方案，如对历史数据、遥感GIS 数据、水土气和孢粉等采样数据及原始数据、指标数据的过程恢复和建模以及预测与对策研究。此外，集地球空间信息存储、处理、传输和分析于一体的面向大数据时代的“数字地球”、“数字城市”等理念，数据模型、夜间灯光数据、地理计算分析、景观生态学等分析手段的不断丰富[70-71]，研究技术手段的长足进步，也将使我们对全球变化背景下长三角地区城镇化发展状态、格局、过程及趋势等问题开展系统的综合性研究成为可能。
4 研究长三角城镇化发展对全球变化响应的意义
著名地理学家任美锷院士曾呼吁[72]，应以长三角作为研究地理科学系统理论的试验区，其理由便是该区过去单项要素研究程度较高，但多学科交叉研究不够。中国拥有数千年的文明史，长三角拥有这一地区丰富的考古、沉积地层、气象站、水文站、验潮站、历史考证资料记录和齐全的遥感数据以及丰富的城镇化发展资料等。以此进行个案研究，有利于厘清长三角环境演变与聚落和城镇形成发展的历史过程，有利于探讨城镇化发展在全球变化背景下的可持续发展对策，其学术和社会实践意义都十分重大。
全球变化已经成为不可逆转的事实，文中所述众多研究成果也表明减缓性方案对气候变化的贡献十分有限。在这种情况下，开展自然地理学和人文地理学以及地质学等交叉学科综合集成研究是在全球变化背景下探讨中国城镇化可持续发展的重要对策，尤其是针对全球变化可能给人类带来的重大不利影响，从提高人类自身抗影响力和主动适应环境变化两个方面提出人类适应气候变化的模式将有十分重要的研究意义。一方面，结合快速城镇化进程的预期和经济社会发展的需求，从发展目标、指导思想、总体方案、行动策略等方面制定长三角城镇化可持续发展方案；另一方面，基于气候变暖可能对长三角地区城镇化发展的影响，通过对城镇化发展空间的优化调整，将最大限度降低气候变化尤其是全球增暖给长三角城镇化发展带来的不利影响。
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基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目(41571179, 41171163); 江苏省科技支撑计划项目(BE2014705); 国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAK08B02) [Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571179; No.41171163; Jiangsu Provincial Key Technology R&D Program, No.BE2014705; National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2013BAK08B02]
